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UBS analyses "black skies" scenario for UK shares

The markets have been relatively subdued this week following the heavy volumes and price moves seen last week.

The plunge appeared to be all about expectations of lower economic growth, and the analysts at UBS have been doing some work on what happens next.

It analyses several scenarios, including the “black skies” view entailing a deep recession.

On our black sky scenario, earnings would be below the 2008-09 low, and the European market would fall below the March 2009 low. We suspect the current market level is pricing in a c40% probability of some form of recession in developed markets.

Its analysts have looked more closely at what happens to different sectors on a “black sky” view.

Banks, steel, mining, transport and insurance suffer the biggest cuts to current earnings estimates. Property, pharma, aerospace and beverages are the least exposed.

UBS’s target for the FTSE 100 at the end of this year is still 6,100, it adds – almost 15% away from where we are today.

At 3pm, the FTSE is now in positive territory again, having recovered earlier losses – up 4 points at 5,362.

The Dow has opened positively too – up 0.8% – after retailers posted strong figures and gains in commodities and the euro suggested investors’ risk appetites are returning. © Guardian News & Media Limited 2011 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds