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London economy: global headwinds, bumpy growth

From the August bulletin of GLA Economics:

Latest data (mainly up to July 2011) shows London’s economy continuing to recover well (especially compared with other regions) with July’s Purchasing Mangers Index from Lloyds TSB/Markit Economics showing strong growth in business activity and new orders in the capital.


Retail sales in the West End also appeared to hold up in July with data from the New West End Company showing sales up 6.8 per cent on the year compared with a UK figure of 0.6 per cent. Overall the recovery in London’s economy remains.


[T]he global economic environment has worsened over recent weeks with stockmarket fragility rising and volatility high. The underlying problem of Eurozone sovereign debt shows no signs of easing and the US economy is experiencing a weak patch…During August the downside risks to the London economy from the global economic outlook have increased.

Hmm. In summary?

[T]he most likely path is still one of bumpy growth for the capital.

Scroll down to learn that new orders for London firms picked up in July compared with June, as did the levels of employment and business activity. However, the capital’s unemployed claimant count rose in July – up from 227,200 in June to 231,200 – and its annual employment rate remains negative. Yes, “bumpy” seems to sum it up. And bumpier for some than for others. © Guardian News & Media Limited 2011 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds