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Davos 2012: Day two, as it happened

World leaders, economists and thinkers in Davos, Switzerland, for the second day of the World Economic Forum meeting

Day one at Davos, as it happened

8.29am: Good morning. We’re back following events in Davos, where Bill Gates is currently holding forth on food security and David Cameron, fresh from Brussels, is set to take the stage at 10:30 UK time. Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown and Boris Johnson are also due to speak – it’s a Britain’s day at Davos.

Yesterday Angela Merkel delivered the summit’s opening speech and captured the news agenda by simultaneously releasing an interview to 6 European newspapers, including the Guardian. For all the latest developments on the ongoing crisis in the eurozone, have a look at my colleague Graeme Wearden and Julia Kollewe’s liveblog. For everything Davos, stay tuned here.

8.29am: Good morning. We’re back following events in Davos, where Bill Gates is currently holding forth on food security and David Cameron, fresh from Brussels, is set to take the stage at 10:30 UK time. Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown and Boris Johnson are also due to speak – it’s a Britain’s day at Davos.

Yesterday, Angela Merkel delivered the summit’s opening speech and captured the news agenda by simultaneously releasing an interview to six European newspapers, including the Guardian. For all the latest developments on the ongoing crisis in the eurozone, have a look at my colleague Graeme Wearden and Julia Kollewe’s liveblog. For everything Davos, stay tuned here.

8.32am: Jill Treanor‘s already up and running with a fascinating insight into why the summit is so crucial to business leaders, and first mention of an intriguing concept: the southern ‘silk road’.

Starting off with a breakfast with HSBC, where chief executive Stuart Gulliver has given me a quick insight into how he spends his days while at Davos. About 60 meetings in 4 days – based roughly on 12 meetings a day, plus a breakfast and a lunch. He’s seeing clients, central bankers etc. And from all around the world. Yesterday? Mexico, Saudi, Italy, US, Switzerland and Brazil to name a few … it illustrates why people come to this ski resort.

HSBC is doing its best to present a more upbeat view of the world. The bank’s chief economist Stephen King set out the case this morning for what he calls a southern ‘silk road’. The idea is that emerging markets will start to trade with each other, not just with the more developed economies. He reckons trade will develop tenfold between Asia, the Middle East and Africa which will change the world does business. He describes it as a ‘return to the world as it was perhaps a thousand years ago’. What he means is that Europe will be on the periphery rather than at the centre of world trade.

There will be implications for even the way cars are made – as places such as China and India demand cars, they will need to be smaller ones than those for the US market, where, to put it politely, the population has been getting heavier. There were a couple of people on the panel with King, including Sunil Kant Munjal, chairman of Hero Corporate Service, who offered the following insight: China makes a decision and implements tomorrow. India makes a decision and starts a debate about it.

9.09am: More from that Bill Gates session, ‘Ensuring Food Security’. Also on the panel are José Graziano da Silva of the UN’s food and agriculture organisation, Swiss Re CEO Stefan Lippe and Nigerian finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who replaces the advertised Goodluck Jonathan (he’s got a lot on his hands at the moment, with fuel protests and terrorism plunging Nigeria into civil crisis).

The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation has invested millions of dollars in food security projects and the philanthropist takes a keen interest in the issue. It’s something that has increasingly preoccupied policy-makers as commodity prices, including those of basic foodstuffs, have rocketed. More from Jill:

‘Ensuring food security’ was one of the main events early in Thursday’s programme in Davos. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, finance director of Nigeria, provided an interesting anecdote in a wide-ranging debate about the grain lost each year. A chief executive visiting Nigeria had said to her that he was amazed by not seeing a single cold storage truck while visiting the country. ‘Now I understood the losses,’ he said to her.

Josette Sheeran, executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, stated that people who don’t have food have three choices – ‘revolt, migrate or die’. ‘We need a better plan,’ she said, pointing to the one in seven people who are food insecure. 70% of brain growth takes place before the age of two so deprivation of food in infants is long-lasting.

Crucially Jose Graziano da Silva reckons the world’s 7bn population will be adequately fed in 20 years time. ‘I am confident we can do it. The problem is not supply side. The problem is access to food.’

Paul Polman, chief executive of Unilever who is co-chair at this year’s Davos, pointed that his company is trying to decouple growth from environmental impact. Unilever has commitment to getting all raw materials sustainably. He is also head of the B20 which meets alongside the G20 leaders. Brono Le Maire, French agriculture minister, admitted that the economic crisis in Europe could take food security off the agenda. He made it clear that he really didn’t think that should happen.

So has capitalism had failed food security – investing in agricultures provides good returns? Microsoft founder and now head of his foundation, Bill Gates, said: ‘No-one ever said capitalism solves everything’. Stefan Lippe, chief executive of Swiss Re, said his firm was developing ways to protect investors against weather risk – that would bring in more investment.

9.18am: More Gates! The excellent World Economic Forum live feed is currently broadcasting a press conference with Gates and Simon Bland.

The topic is the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which is 10 years old this month.

Jill tells me that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is putting 0m in the form of a promissory note into the Global Fund. He urged contributors not to pull back on their commitments because of tough economic times. She also said that Simon Bland, who runs the fund, acknowledged that taxpayers question the value of aid during tough economic times. Even so, he is going to be asking governments for fresh support.

9.32am: Former UK prime minister Gordon Brown is due to speak twice today – once in a few minutes and once at 11:30 UK time, when he’ll clash with Ed Miliband, also due to speak then.

He’s likely to be touting his new global fund for education – an ambitious project aimed at achieving universal primary education by 2015. In a report released today, Brown warns of “a hidden and silent emergency in education”. He says:

Cameras never capture children going hungry for want of education, or lives devastated for want of learning.

9.41am: The main hall is packed for Gordon Brown’s session on ‘Africa – From Transition to Transformation’. He’s joined by Jacob Zuma, the South African president, Alpha Condé, president of Guinea, Jakaya Kikwete, president of Tanzania, Raila Odinga, prime minister of Kenya and Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian PM.

Zenawi just accidentally called Brown “Mr Prime Minister”.

9.46am: Yesterday, we heard how bankers actually hissed Peter Mandelson during one Davos session. Today it’s become clearer that the former EU trade commissioner and UK cabinet minister is attempting to distance himself from the global financial elite. Our reporter here in London, Shiv Malik, has the story:

Lord Mandelson has admitted that he is no longer ‘intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes’, given rising inequality and stagnating middle class incomes brought about by the damaging downsides of globalisation.

Almost a decade and a half after making his remarks which came to characterise the Labour government’s embrace of free markets and the City, Mandelson said that he was now “much more concerned” about inequality than when he made first made his comments to a US industrialist in California in 1998.

Describing his previous his remarks as ‘spontaneous and un-thoughtful’, Mandelson who has held a number of government posts during his long political career but was most recently business secretary under Gordon Brown’s government, said he would no longer repeat them today.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4′s Today programme after the publication in Davos on Wednesday of a thinktank report on the future of Globalisation, Mandelson said, ‘I don’t think I would say that now. Why? Because amongst other things we’ve seen that globalisation has not generated the rising incomes for all,’ he said.

In an about turn from one of the staunchest defenders of free trade and globalisation on the left, the former European trade commissioner also made the argument for greater government control and economic intervention and believed that the UK needed to develop a ‘modern industrial policy’.

10.04am: Our economics editor Larry Elliott has been watching Gordon Brown’s Africa session. He sends us these thoughts:

Gordon Brown is chairing a Davos session on Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa has recovered quickly from the Great Recession of 2008-09, Brown says, but big challenges remain. Africa is 15% of the world’s population but accounts for only 1% of global manufacturing and 1% of global inward investment.

Meles Zenawi, prime minister of Ethiopia, expresses confidence that Africa will be the next “growth pole” of the global economy and is in the position that India was in at the start of the 1990s, before its rapid economic take-off period.

Africa needs three things, he adds: higher investment in infrastructure; better skills; and to attract low-cost manufacturing plants which are looking to re-locate from Asia.

Jakaya Kikwete, president of Tanzania says Africa is ‘starting from very low levels of development’. He outlines six areas necessary for more rapid progress: sticking to economic reform programmes; investment in education at all levels; transforming agriculture from a position where people ‘live from hand to mouth’; develop infrastructure; boost manufacturing; and integrate both regionally and internationally. ‘Africa needs access to markets”, he says. ‘The early conclusion of the Doha Development Agenda (trade liberalisation talks) is critical’.

Sarah Brown, Gordon’s wife, is tweeting proceedings:

President Zuma of South Africa: optimistic about Africa’s leadership and knows the future is on their own hands @WEF #davos

— Sarah Brown (@SarahBrownUK) January 26, 2012

President Kikwete: we are all part of global economy- that affects Africa; need to invest in education as our men & women make things happen

— Sarah Brown (@SarahBrownUK) January 26, 2012

10.20am: David Cameron is due to take the floor at around 10:30. His speech has been widely trailed. He’s due to say that eurozone leaders need to “stop tinkering” and “be bolder”.

But Professor Simon Evenett of St Gallen University, whom I spoke to yesterday, emails me to say:

At a Davos where the private sector is imploring governments to end the eurozone crisis, any defence of last December’s UK veto won’t go down well.

A bulldog speech by Prime Minister Cameron risks painting the UK as part of the problem. Although the prime minister’s speech at Davos is another opportunity to push for further liberalisation in Europe, the UK’s real priority is to protect the single market as well as the City.

10.34am: Faisal Islam, Channel 4 News economics editor, tweets the following photo of delegates queueing up for Cameron:

Long queue of dignitaries to hear the prime minister at davos…

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) January 26, 2012

10.38am: Cameron is on. (Larry Elliott tells us “Brown is an old pro. His session on Africa has overrun by five minutes, keeping Cameron waiting”.) Don’t forget to watch for yourself on the Davos live feed. I note that Cameron’s viewing figures on the feed are hovering around the 1300 mark. Merkel’s were up into the 3000s.

Cameron says:

This is not a moment to try and pretend there is not a problem… this is a time to show the leadership that our people are quite rightly demanding. Tinkering … simply isn’t going to cut it any more. This is a time for boldness. Boldness in what we do nationally, but also boldness in what we do as a continent.

10.44am: Here’s the live feed again:

Some more Cameron quotes:

The most urgent question facing all of Europe right now is how to deal with the eurozone crisis. This is where Europe needs to be boldest of all … We need to be honest about the overall situation. The crisis is still weighing down on business confidence and on investment … the uncertainty in Greece has to be brought to an end … but we also have to be honest about the long-term consequences of a single currency.

And some twitter reaction (we note that Sarah Brown has fallen silent):

Five EU countries are less competitive than Iran, says Cameron.He is really cosying up to the rest of Europe

— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 26, 2012

Cameron #davos “We are unashamedly pro-business” Apart from bank regulation, pay clamp down, minimum price for alcohol, North Sea oil tax…

— Kamal Ahmed (@kamalahmed1) January 26, 2012

It would appear that Cameron is getting more impatient with €urozone leaders

— Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 26, 2012

11.07am: The British prime minister is tying things up with a stand-up question and answer session. Very Tory party conference – not very Davos. Yesterday evening Angela Merkel was quizzed sedately by Klaus Schwab from the comfort of an armchair.

Cameron’s mind ever on the PR angle as he looks for next question in audience. “Who’s next? We need a bit of gender balance here”

— FT at Davos 2012 (@FTDavos) January 26, 2012

He’s also alluded to a “special treat” at the end of the Q&A. What could it be?

11.08am: That treat – it’s Boris Johnson and Sebastian Coe! Lucky us.

Boris has bought some Thames water – “the champagne of waters” with him to Davos, and turned it into an ice sculpture of Tower Bridge. All to promote the 2012 Olympic games, of course.

11.25am: It’s the ice sculpture Boris Johnson, mayor of London, couldn’t resist telling us about at the end of David Cameron’s session.

My colleague Graeme Wearden points out that it’s grossly geographically inaccurate and may confuse visitors to the Olympics later this year.

11.42am: Larry Elliott and Jill Treanor have been working together on a news story in reaction Cameron’s speech. Here’s an early excerpt. They describe his address as a “stinging critique” of the eurozone’s response to economic crisis.

David Cameron urged eurozone leaders to follow Britain’s ‘bold and decisive’ action in dealing with its crisis as he warned that the continent was facing a ‘perilous’ moment.

Addressing the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, the prime minister said three things needed to done urgently in 2012 – ‘Greece, banks and firewall’. He said Greek situation needed to resolved, banks recapitalised and an agreement reached a new bailout fund for troubled eurozone countries.

He set out a stinging critique of the eurozone’s current response the crisis, and its long-term failure to make itself more competitive. Half of EU countries were less competitive than they were a year ago and five were less competitive than Iran. Since the start of the crisis the level of government debt per head of population in Europe had risen by €4,500, foreign direct investment had fallen by two-thirds and nearly half of EU member states had nearly one-fifth of their young people out of work.

‘This is not a moment to pretend there’s not a problem. It’s not the moment for fear of failure to hold us back,’ he said.

He described the timing of a proposal for a financial transaction tax as ‘madness’, saying it would cost 500,000 jobs in the EU and cut GDP up to €200bn.

Setting out a defence of his own tough stance on cutting spending, he said ‘to be cautious would have have been catastrophic’.

‘It is time for boldness,’ he said. ‘The [eurozone] crisis is still weighing down on business confidence,’ said Cameron, citing the rise in bond yields in Spain, Italy and Portugal from a year ago.

11.57am: Jill Treanor’s now heading to a session on the Nordic experience. Can lessons learnt by Scandinavian countries, with their high-state spending/high-quality of life model be applied globally? Ed Miliband will be joined there by the Danish PM and fellow social democrat, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Norway’s trade minister and Sweden’s finance minister. The Chatham House rule applies, apparently, but Jill is hoping to speak to Miliband. We’ll let you know how she gets on.

11.59am: And just when you thought you’d had enough of British politicians and ex-PMs strutting their stuff at Davos, Tony Blair turns up as well. Kamal Ahmed from the Sunday Telegraph tweets:

At #Davos #wef philanthropy debate Tony Blair, Eric Schmidt, Sean Parker and Yuri Milner. So, small beer then…

— Kamal Ahmed (@kamalahmed1) January 26, 2012

Oh yes, and the moderator is someone called Chelsea Clinton #Davos #wef

— Kamal Ahmed (@kamalahmed1) January 26, 2012

12.03pm: Oh. No Tony Blair after all. He’s not the only no-show. Goodluck Jonathan, president of Nigeria, has also failed to turn up – perhaps understandably – for at least two sessions.

Ah, sadly no Tony Blair. He’s “stuck in Middle East” Probably wanted to avoid those tricky questions on his complex biz structures #Davos

— Kamal Ahmed (@kamalahmed1) January 26, 2012

1.02pm: Larry Elliott’s been at lunch with the mayor of London, and observes that there are some subjects he’s happy to gloss over:

Boris Johnson is speaking at Olympics lunch and telling everybody how safe it is. Crime is down by 10% over the past four years, murder rate down by a quarter, crime on public transport down by 30% and the tube is the safest in Europe. No mention of last summer’s riots.

1.13pm: The Robin Hood Tax campaign has leapt into action after David Cameron disparaged the idea of a financial transaction tax (FTT) in his Davos speech – he said its introduction would be “simply madness”.

Spokesman David Hilman said:

Cameron is guilty of using dodgy statistics and bad economics to justify his opposition to an FTT that would ensure the City pays to repair the damage it has caused.

Cameron has confused the interests of the Square Mile with the interests of Britain as a whole and is turning down billions that could protect schools, hospitals and jobs.

1.31pm: Meet Davos man. And the occasional woman.

The Davos ‘Ask a Leader’ video series puts you face-to-face with some of the summit’s luminaries, from Mauricio Cardenas, Colombia’s mining minister to novelist and poet Carmen Boullosa.

Here’s physicist Saul Perlmutter, talking about the history of the expansion of the universe. Quite some way from 10-year bond yields.

1.44pm: Jill Treanor reports from that session with Ed Miliband:

So the Nordic discussion was fascinating – the idea of equality, social security and union recognition. Under Chatham House rules there is no quoting unless the participants agree. Ed Miliband wasn’t keen. But one participant Jacob Wallenberg, chairman of the big Swedish investment house Investor AB (who told me later this was his 20th Davos) was. Addressing the point about whether Nordic countries were complacent about their success, he said ‘when China gets going, it’s not that I’m concerned they’ll pass us but that they will run us over’. He stressed this was not a political statement but one about economics.

2.18pm: Reuters has produced a slightly overwhelming Davos by numbers graphic. It contains such gems as follows: it costs 9 to take a limousine from Zurich to Davos, as many delegates will, unless they take a helicopter, at 00 for a return trip; global public debt in 2012 is tn, compared to tn in 2000; 4712 Swiss troops have been deployed to protect the summit; and Swiss socialists have built 15 protest igloos.

CNN reckons that being a delegate costs, on average, ,000 in accreditation, travel and expenses. Money well spent?

2.39pm: Barclay’s chief Bob Diamond has been giving interviews. He’s been talking to Bloomberg in a somewhat chilly studio: “The zero-interest rate environment in the major developed economies is certainly presenting a challenge to banking, there’s no question about it.”

On regulation, he says:

We know we want to make the financial system safer and sounder. But we also know the importance of driving the economy, providing opportunities for job creation … and keeping a balance amongst the major economies so that we encourage the continued development of international banking and not a return to protectionism and Balkanisation.

He’s also been hanging out with Liz Clayman, of Fox business news:

Barclays CEO Bob Diamond 2 FBN: “I predict U.S. GDP will surprise 2 the upside in Q4, will b 3%.”

— Liz Claman (@LizClaman) January 26, 2012

2.59pm: Associated Press’s debate on democracy – Are the democratic institutions of the 20th century fit for the 21st? – is now underway. The live feed is below.

Yesterday, AP asked people to submit questions to their panellists, including Tunisian politician Rachid Ghannouchi, Republican congressman David T Dreier and Pakistani foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar.

Rachid Ghannouchi says:

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a wave democracy spread across the world, but not the Arab world. The obstacle was not Islam, but outside pressure.

He goes on to comment: “I have no doubt that the Syrian revolution will succeed like all other revolutions.”

3.31pm: Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has arrived in Davos. Those hoping for profound insights from the former French finance minister may be disappointed by her first tweet, which is about snow. Don’t worry, Christine, we get your drift.

Good to be back in Davos. Record snowfall here- highest in January for 69 years. World Economic Forum

— Christine Lagarde (@Lagarde) January 26, 2012

There are hints that another global player may be drawing near. Rupert Murdoch tweets that he’s in Zurich, a mere 00 helicopter ride away from Davos:

In Zurich with the big chiefs of soccer. Amazing organization with power over most of the world’s football.Now back to family and work.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) January 26, 2012

4.19pm: The Guardian multimedia team have put together a montage of David Cameron’s summit speech.

In the meantime the European press have been reacting to the UK PM’s address, which included harsh criticism of the response to the eurozone crisis. Der Spiegel goes with “Cameron dismisses Merkel’s financial transaction plan as ‘madness’“, whereas leftwing French daily Libération has “Cameron wants more deregulation at the heart of the EU“. Rightwing Spanish daily El Mundo‘s headline is “Cameron describes the Sarkozy and Rajoy’s Tobin tax as ‘mad’“.

4.24pm: Some scratching of heads as to why Ed Miliband appears not to need a coat, despite the nearly freezing Davos weather. Tweeter Political Animal suggests one possibility, courtesy of The West Wing:

@nicholaswatt Abby Bartlett: “Why didn’t Santos wear a coat?” Jed: “He wanted to look young & vigorous.” “He looked a young, vigorous fool.”

— Political Animal (@politic_animal) January 26, 2012

4.32pm: Felipe Calderón, president of Mexico, is delivering a speech in the congress hall. The session, moderated by Bill Gates, is entitled “Global economic crisis: role and challenges of the G20″.

Calderón says:

The crisis is an opportunity to address once and for all the terrible misery in which many people live.

4.39pm: Calderón:

If we are ever to define a new type of development model, this is the time to do it. We must move towards a green growth path … climate change, for instance, is already affecting the quality of life in my country. We have the worst floods in the south of the country and the worst droughts in the north ever, at the same time. Taking action now will be much cheaper than taking action in the future … Mexico will push for the G20 countries to comply with their commitments.

The president adds:

The new economic model will have to be one in which growth doesn’t come at the expense of financial responsibility, social justice and full respect for the environment.

4.45pm: Calderón is praising the April 2009 G20 hosted by Gordon Brown in London as a model for international economic cooperation. At that meeting, world leaders agreed to pump an additional tn (£748bn) into the crisis-hit global economy.

5.07pm: A special video message from Aung San Suu Kyi followed the Calderon session.

Speaking of the democratic movement in her own country, the Burmese opposition leader said:

Support us in our efforts to take the next crucial step that will enable us to bridge the gap between potential and fulfilment … The possibility of a great transformation is in sight for our country … Please support our endeavours to make Burma the shining representative of what can be possible.

Aung San Suu Kyi explained that the work to prepare for elections has kept her away from the Davos summit, though of course the risks of her being denied re-entry to the country after leaving it are still very real.

5.19pm: Stephen Harper, prime minister of Canada, is giving the final set-piece speech of the evening in the congress hall. It’s interesting to compare his managerialist delivery with that of David Cameron – let alone Boris Johnson – earlier in the day. He’s talking up the Canadian economy, as expected, and making assurances not to raise tax. Harper also seems to be throwing in the odd line of French in – perhaps around 20%, to match the proportion of native French speakers in Canada?

5.28pm: That’s just about it for today. Here’s a summary of the main developments:

• It was ‘UK day’ at Davos – or at least, it felt that way. Gordon Brown’s session on Africa was followed by David Cameron in bullish form, lecturing the assembled delegates on the ‘madness’ of a financial transaction tax, among other things.

• Peter Mandelson made clear in an interview with the Today Programme that he regretted saying Labour was ‘intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich’, adding that ‘globalisation has not generated the rising incomes for all’.

• Bill Gates made his presence felt at the summit, with a major discussion on food security, a topic close to his heart, a press conference on the global fund against Aids, TB and malaria, and an interview with Mexican president Felipe Calderón.

• Aung Sun Suu Kyi delivered a video message in which she asked global leaders for support in her struggle to establish a more democratic Burma.

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